Republican Iowa Caucus 2012

Cailst

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BLADE

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Fiddlesticks. I made a duplicate thread. As for New Hampshire, historically the Iowa winner has gotten a small boost in New Hampshire, but that is really a matter of statistical fitting, since a concurrent winner of Iowa and New Hampshire usually shows as getting a big boost from Iowa. What can be said here is that if (in all likelihood) the winners of Iowa and New Hampshire are different, there probably won't be any more than a few points "swing" towards the Iowa candidate (see Huckabee in 2008.)

As for the second question? Hard to say. Obama is weak and the economy is weak. On the other hand, the GOP primary candidates seriously make me think that at any moment, Andy Kaufman is gonna pop out and say, "Just kidding, guys! I'm not dead and these guys aren't running for President; they're waiters at an Applebee's! Every one of you that voted in Iowa just won free fajita starter platters!"

If you want to quantify that answer: http://pollyvote.forecastingprinciples.com/index.php/pollyvote-2012.html

Caveat emptor about usual forecasting issues.
 
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Brandon Rhea

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Mitt Romney can beat Obama. Will he? I'm not sure, but I'm leaning towards no.
 

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For what it's worth, I don't think Romney is the most electable (whatever the alchemy behind that perennially desirable trait is) candidate and think he'll hurt Republicans downticket. For my money, if Perry could recover from being Rick Perry (a terminal condition, I think) he'd be best positioned to defeat the Kenyan Usurper.

Well, either him or Jon Huntsman, who is stupidly conservative but not given to promising that liberals will drown in their innumerable sorrows as St. Ronaldus Magnus Reagan comes to cull them from this earth. So he probably won't win.

I would love it if Newt Gingrich won. The sheer spectacle would be enough to distract me from the fact that the election is basically a political Sophie's choice.

Maybe I should just write in Meryl Streep.
 

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Triumphalism is generally premature. Especially if the Eurozone problems go south (as well they might.)

Mind you, I would prefer not to see Romney in any case. He represents the worst of American politics in one improbably-well coiffed package.
 

jpchewy01

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Triumphalism is generally premature. Especially if the Eurozone problems go south (as well they might.)

Mind you, I would prefer not to see Romney in any case. He represents the worst of American politics in one improbably-well coiffed package.

I in no way support any of the Republican candidates, but if I had to choose one, Romney would probably the best choice. But I'm still a part of the camp that thinks that Obama is the lesser to two evils. I'd rather have an incompetent semi-socialist wannabe for president than a Republican.
 

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Obama is no wannabe semi-socialist. He's an orthodox neoliberal with the occasional social democratic impulse. But I digress.

I don't see why people feel Romney is the best choice of the field. Sure Michele Bachmann is nuts, Santorum is nuts (and corrupt), Rick Perry is nuts (and corrupt and a moron), Newt Gingrich is... not nuts, but corrupt and a total tool, but they all at least represent an ethos, to borrow from the great Walter Sobchak.

But Romney is absolutely soulless. He believes is absolutely nothing more than getting elected. He wouldn't hesitate to throw his grandmother in front of a bus to become President. Romney is like a robot send back from the future to kill whatever idealism the American people had. He's Richard Nixon without the warmth. He's a doublespeaking Wall Street tycoon in the age when Wall Street committed mass fraud on the American (and global) public. I wouldn't support him for dog catcher, let alone President.

Mind you, I'll have to reluctantly vote Obama and then pray that things don't go south.
 
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jpchewy01

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I'm a communist. So I'm unhappy either way.:CHappy
 

BLADE

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Meh. You guys just need a snappy rebranding campaign. Maybe have Morgan Freeman star as Lenin in one of your next commercials (right, you guys do that, buy ad time for profit and whatnot, right?)

And this election is not gonna make anyone happy. The choice is between two feces sandwiches, but one is made with Wonderbread™ and the other is made with an off-puttingly foreign and anti-colonial brioche.
 

jpchewy01

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Meh. You guys just need a snappy rebranding campaign. Maybe have Morgan Freeman star as Lenin in one of your next commercials (right, you guys do that, buy ad time for profit and whatnot, right?)

And this election is not gonna make anyone happy. The choice is between two feces sandwiches, but one is made with Wonderbread™ and the other is made with an off-puttingly foreign and anti-colonial brioche.

Couldn't have said it better myself.
 

Cailst

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Obama is no wannabe semi-socialist. He's an orthodox neoliberal with the occasional social democratic impulse. But I digress.

I don't see why people feel Romney is the best choice of the field. Sure Michele Bachmann is nuts, Santorum is nuts (and corrupt), Rick Perry is nuts (and corrupt and a moron), Newt Gingrich is... not nuts, but corrupt and a total tool, but they all at least represent an ethos, to borrow from the great Walter Sobchak.

But Romney is absolutely soulless. He believes is absolutely nothing more than getting elected. He wouldn't hesitate to throw his grandmother in front of a bus to become President. Romney is like a robot send back from the future to kill whatever idealism the American people had. He's Richard Nixon without the warmth. He's a doublespeaking Wall Street tycoon in the age when Wall Street committed mass fraud on the American (and global) public. I wouldn't support him for dog catcher, let alone President.

Mind you, I'll have to reluctantly vote Obama and then pray that things don't go south.

So what positions/qualities/other important stuff would you say would cause you to vote for a candidate?
 

BLADE

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Not being a corporate self-caricature who in all likelihood polls his family on what type of Christmas sweater he should wear this year?

I'm a Social Democrat and find pretty much every tenet of modern conservatism loathsome and/or idiotic, but if I were a conservative, I'd vote for the guy who actually believes what he's peddling rather than the guy who will basically believe whatever you tell him to believe.

Then again, if you're the ruthlessly pragmatic type, maybe Romney's unique malleability is exactly what you're looking for in a candidate. A tabula rasa for every single inane whim you might have. Who knows?

What are your thoughts, since you asked?
 

jpchewy01

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Then again, if you're the ruthlessly pragmatic type, maybe Romney's unique malleability is exactly what you're looking for in a candidate. A tabula rasa for every single inane whim you might have. Who knows?

This is me.:CSly
 

BLADE

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See I'm self-aware enough that to know that for all my monumental brilliance, sparkling wit and incredible humility, I'm not always right. So I'd want to have a candidate who had the wisdom and resolve to be right more often than I was. It's the entire republican (small-r) ethos on which our great nation was founded.
 

jpchewy01

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See I'm self-aware enough that to know that for all my monumental brilliance, sparkling wit and incredible humility, I'm not always right. So I'd want to have a candidate who had the wisdom and resolve to be right more often than I was. It's the entire republican (small-r) ethos on which our great nation was founded.

I like the ethos that my great nation was founded on. The monarch is right. Full stop.
 

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Prospero, your posts are tedious to read. You're clearly trying too hard to sound clever.
 

BLADE

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I thought your nation was based on self-effacing humor and a stiff upper lip.

Also, monarchical absolutism is the province of those perfidious French frogs.

Sovereign: I have to joke because the alternative is way too depressing. You're lucky living in Canada. This is all just academic to you. Unless of course your country throws opens its borders for us disaffected Americans. Then I wouldn't crack wise ever again.
 

jpchewy01

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Prospero, your posts are tedious to read. You're clearly trying too hard to sound clever.

Or perhaps he's hardly trying at all. Have you considered that we perhaps have a really smart person on the forums. Or perhaps it's really Brandon or myself letting ourselves rant without drawing the criticism of the rest of the forums. Every time Brandon posts a really long post (every other day at least), you come in and say, "Brandon, stop writing freaking novels every time you post." Perhaps writing novels every time he posts is his way of getting his point across. But I digress.

Assuming Prospero is a sovereign entity, perhaps he just is smart and cannot imagine any other way of conveying his thoughts and opinions via the internet. Maybe he has OCD that only allows him to write posts over a certain word count, and if he doesn't, he'll rip his eyes out of their sockets. You never thought about this stuff did you? All you thought about was TL;DR.:CStern
 
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