Turkey to claim Crimea from Russia: The next WW3?

[Cainhurst Crow]

What happens if the united states goes into talks with russia, and then announces that turkey will not have the support of the united states if it engages russia in military action? I'm really doubtful russia wants a war with the united states and vice versa, and I doubt Washington wouldn't see this same situation coming and try to work out a work-around with russia and turkey, or maybe just russia in order to avoid this war.

 

[Brandon Rhea]

What happens if the united states goes into talks with russia, and then announces that turkey will not have the support of the united states if it engages russia in military action?

The established world order would collapse, because it would signal the dissolution of any semblance of international alliances and mutual defense pacts.

World War III would be inevitable at that point because all bets are off.

 

[Sovereign]

Guatemala has historically been resistant to international alliances. In 2002, they proclaimed that they would be mostly independent from the rest of the world, save for their important banana resources. So because they are isolationist, any conflict with them wouldn't lead to anything on the scale that one between Russia and Turkey would. That would automatically trigger an American response, and then it's only a matter of time until Iran and Israel are at war.

I actually wrote my thesis on Guatemala's banana isolationism policy. President Fillipe Murano called it "Fortress Banana" as a tongue-in-cheek take on "Fortress North America." He was actually quite serious about it.

 

[Brandon Rhea]

I actually wrote my thesis on Guatemala's banana isolationism policy. President Fillipe Murano called it "Fortress Banana" as a tongue-in-cheek take on "Fortress North America." He was actually quite serious about it.

Yeah, we had to write a paper on it for my Comparative World Economics class in college. That idea dates back to President Raul Lasilvo in 1937.

 

[Sovereign]

Yeah, we had to write a paper on it for my Comparative World Economics class in college. That idea dates back to President Raul Lasilvo in 1937.

Whoa, we had that assignment too. My professor used to call him Raul LasilVA-MOS (let's go in Spanish) as a joke after learning about the infamous ballroom incident with his grand-grandfather and President John Jennings in 1832. It was hilarious.

 

[Brandon Rhea]

Whoa, we had that assignment too. My professor used to call him Raul LasilVA-MOS as a joke after learning about the infamous ballroom incident with his grand-grandfather and President John Jennings in 1832.

What do you think some of the rogue states will do if WW3 happens? I'm concerned about what Sheea Bataria (Pakistan's president) said about potentially siding with Russia, despite their long-standing (albeit shaky) ties with the United States. That could only escalate the ballistic war into a potential nuclear confrontation.

 

[The Stick of Truth]

Just giving my two cents here, I’m obviously less prepared for this kind of discussion than you guys because you seem to be way older than me. Anyhow, I don’t see a major conflict emerging from this, maybe something like Iraq, but I don’t believe there will be anything truly major. If something truly major happens, we will probably won’t hear much from it, because the way I see things, and war in our time would be most Cover Operations or straight Thermonuclear, and there won’t be anything left after a thermonuclear war. If I’m not mistaken here, we have a sufficient amount of nuclear weaponry to “crack the planet in half”.

 

[Cainhurst Crow]

The established world order would collapse, because it would signal the dissolution of any semblance of international alliances and mutual defense pacts.

World War III would be inevitable at that point because all bets are off.

But doesn't that depend on there actually being a sizable ripple from this course of action? It wouldn't be the first time we turned on a public ally and went back on our word in order to save face and avoid a major conflict.

Though usually the united states ended up in another war because of that decision years later....I think I need to think this out a bit more.

 

[Brandon Rhea]

But doesn't that depend on there actually being a sizable ripple from this course of action? It wouldn't be the first time we turned on a public ally and went back on our word in order to save face and avoid a major conflict.

Turkey is more than just a public ally. Turkey is currently caught between two worlds. One part of the country wants it to be part of NATO, and even wants to be part of the European Union. That part of Turkey embraces the western world. The other part of the country are Islamic fundamentalists who want it to be more like a radical Middle Eastern country. If the United States backs out of its treaty obligations, which means NATO backs out of its treaty obligations, then Turkey will fall to Muslim extremists. We will have created a brand new, very big, and very dangerous adversary for the United States where there was once a westernized ally. It would be the new Iran.

 

[Spacer]

Back when the Guatemala/UK debacle happened they would have been under the Roosevelt doctrine...but the US has proven in the past that it could care less about the betterment of Central and South America. But that's not on topic.


The fact that Russia's main forces are stationed there further enforces my point that Turkey wont touch it because it doesn't have to power to match up against Russia. Even if Turkey does have NATO (and American) backing I don't think they would make a move towards war. I think it would be ignorant and arrogant for the leaders of Turkey to go to war over this. I don't know what Turkish-Russian relations are like now, but I think it would take a LOT of animosity between the two countries for this to lead to a war.

 

[Sovereign]

Turkey is more than just a public ally. Turkey is currently caught between two worlds. One part of the country wants it to be part of NATO, and even wants to be part of the European Union. That part of Turkey embraces the western world. The other part of the country are Islamic fundamentalists who want it to be more like a radical Middle Eastern country. If the United States backs out of its treaty obligations, which means NATO backs out of its treaty obligations, then Turkey will fall to Muslim extremists. We will have created a brand new, very big, and very dangerous adversary for the United States where there was once a westernized ally. It would be the new Iran.

Don't forget the third part who support integration into Guatemala. I admit they're a small, marginalized minority, but they did gained some prominence after a surge of Turkish immigrants to Guatemala in the 60's.

 

[Brandon Rhea]

Back when the Guatemala/UK debacle happened they would have been under the Roosevelt doctrine...but the US has proven in the past that it could care less about the betterment of Central and South America. But that's not on topic.


The fact that Russia's main forces are stationed there further enforces my point that Turkey wont touch it because it doesn't have to power to match up against Russia. Even if Turkey does have NATO (and American) backing I don't think they would make a move towards war. I think it would be ignorant and arrogant for the leaders of Turkey to go to war over this. I don't know what Turkish-Russian relations are like now, but I think it would take a LOT of animosity between the two countries for this to lead to a war.

Except there already is animosity. A sizable portion of the Turkish population is furious with Russia for taking such a hard stand against Chechen rebels who are a largely Muslim ethnic group. So Turkey, in an effort to appease the fundamentalists in their own country, may go after Russia. Because if Turkey does not honor the treaty again, then the Turkish government will be in the hands of terrorists.

 

[Spacer]

Except there already is animosity. A sizable portion of the Turkish population is furious with Russia for taking such a hard stand against Chechen rebels who are a largely Muslim ethnic group. So Turkey, in an effort to appease the fundamentalists in their own country, may go after Russia. Because if Turkey does not honor the treaty again, then the Turkish government will be in the hands of terrorists.

Got ya, like I said, I don't know much about the two nations relations. My political knowledge is limited to this hemisphere. EDIT: Hence, the Guatemala analogy. :

Does anyone know how strong the Islamic Movement is in Turkey? Do they have a majority in government or just a large portion of the population?

 

[Insanity]

Battlefield 4 anyone?

 

[Brandon Rhea]

Got ya, like I said, I don't know much about the two nations relations. My political knowledge is limited to this hemisphere. EDIT: Hence, the Guatemala analogy. :

Does anyone know how strong the Islamic Movement is in Turkey? Do they have a majority in government or just a large portion of the population?

97% of Turks are Muslims. Take from that what you will.

 

[Fyston]

As I've got no real experience in international relations and there hasn't been a real precedent as far as nuclear war goes, I've got two questions: How likely are Washington and Moscow to press the red button and, if it's likely, when?

I figure it'll be the US and Russia pressing it first if it gets pressed, simply because I doubt the UK and France are going to want to be the ones to get involved as quickly as we are. While they're NATO, there's still the Cold War era tension between the US and Russia, at least in my opinion (uninformed/crappy as it may be).

 

[Brandon Rhea]

Alright, I should probably put a stop to this now before I cause any real intellectual damage. Sovereign and I were basically trolling this thread. We made up most of what we said. Disregard everything.

:CSly

 

[Fyston]

[video=youtube;H22t-tiWiLw]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H22t-tiWiLw[/video]

Edit: Minus the Guatemala part. I was more interested in the Turkey-US-Russia-Mygreatgrandmother relation and figured Guatemala was excess fluff, so I didn't really care/pay attention to it.

 

[Raif]

If I remember correctly, Turkey also has a history of Islamic fundamentalists taking over the country, just to then be ousted by the Turkish military who (rightfully) see themselves as the protectors of the semi-secular constitution.

 

[The Stick of Truth]

You guys were joking? God dammit, I committed so many crimes, declared my love for someone, and I even cursed my enemies thinking the world was about to end… DAMN YOU ALL!